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  #21  
Old 03-28-2018, 10:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Trak Ratt View Post
I watched the video several times. Even slowing it down and didn't acquire the women till just before collision. Don't think she was in cross walk, but that doesn't usually carry a death sentence.
You are seeing the video. The car does not use that video to detect. Lots of people get hit by human controlled cars every day. Deer don't use crosswalks but one coming through the windscreen will mess up your day.

The systems will only get better and better to the point that they are far better than humans. First powered flight took a human 820 feet. Now we can fly around the globe on one fill.
We have to make and use things in order to find all the aspects needed. We can think our way though most things from the start but there are all the other things we have not though of yet that come into play or into use. Not saying that we should all be unrestrained and use us all as test dummies just that it is something that needs to be and will be done. I remember when we got a push button phone.. The black rectangular thing in my pocket was inconceivable then.

Push button phone days....Teen Kurt takes a hit off a fat joint and says.. "Ok, Ok D00d, get this, Lets make a device that runs on a battery all day that fits in your pocket that you can make phone calls to anyone in the world, you can get access to like all of or 1000 times the information in the library of congress, you can watch any TV station and any video and almost any movie ever made play all kinds of cool games listen to all the music ever recorded, and lets make it so it will listen to a bunch of satellites so it can guide you from anywhere to anywhere and tell you just where you are, and that is just some of it. You can even see other people you call and send them pictures and movies you can make from the same little black rectangle. Guy next to high Kurt goes "Cool, how you going to tell it how to do stuff? Stoner#3 goes "Hey man, you just talk to it or touch the TV screen" Stoner#2 says "You can also tell it what to learn so it can do anything you want like a calculator or something". We all bust out laughing, one of us falls off the park bench he is cracking up so hard and we roll another one.

All this in 2/3 of my lifetime.


Aspects far in excess of driving you around come into play. From storage of parked cars in congested areas to, greatly increased flow and car per mile rates to how we even own and use them are all going to improve.

You might just buy into an access service like we now get music. "Alexia, I want to go to Giant and shop for a weeks worth of food". She sends a car with a trunk and off you go to Giant.Get out at the front door and walk in. Car takes care of itself. Check out and the car is waiting at the pickup line having arrived just in time. Ask to go to dinner with 3 others and she sends a sedan. Same thing. Door to door.

We could still own the car but not have to bother with it other than use it. It stores itself offsite and comes when called. It goes in for service on its own, charges or fuels itself.
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Last edited by Vicegrip; 03-28-2018 at 10:33 AM.
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  #22  
Old 03-28-2018, 10:12 AM
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Planes don't have AI. They are literally decades behind in technology of whats in these cars.
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  #23  
Old 03-28-2018, 10:30 AM
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Old 03-28-2018, 10:59 AM
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Did anyone happen to watch the new X-files a few weeks ago?...hilarious parody of this very topic. Made you think....

https://www.fox.com/watch/39b3ae45d9...79ad8555a5a33/
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Old 03-28-2018, 11:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by N0tt0N View Post
Ed - Watch it. Some of my best friends are Asianaians and they pilot just fine.

"It's like rain on your wedding day."

ed
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Old 03-28-2018, 12:21 PM
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Ed,

"To nitpick this a bit (hey, it's Dorki!)"

Point taken: Even idiots can defeat a "Closed and Highly Control System" -- from within.
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  #27  
Old 03-28-2018, 01:09 PM
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True. But now all they need to do to achieve defeat is have a hard time flicking a booger out the window or get into a text fight with the future ex. They are now distracted drivers
I see them all. The. Time. BTW. The deal with people stopping 3 car lengths behind the car before them is a real pisser. They are so in need to pick up the frigging phone they cancel the last 30 feet of the slowto a stop in order to be able to grab the phone. Then they dribble off the line finishing up the last 3 or so words as the roll of the brake and creep coward.
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  #28  
Old 03-29-2018, 01:22 AM
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Of course, if this was not an autonomous vehicle, we would be wondering why someone would be walking her bicycle across a divided street in traffic.
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  #29  
Old 03-29-2018, 09:21 AM
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OK, seriously. Yes, we know that human drivers in general suck. So that's a pretty poor standard for autonomous vehicles to be held to.

So what should the standard be?

Looking at commercial aviation, the system safety is managed is to choose a target level of safety, and to design and assure the systems that make up the overall system to that level of safety. For aviation, the target level of safety is one fatal accident every 1e+9 flight hours (roughly). The safety level for roads need not be the same, but there are many many more road hours than flight hours. (EDIT: I found data for 2015 that suggests that on US highways there were about 1.15 fatalities (people) per 1e+8 vehicle-miles traveled - slightly different formulation from aviation, but a similar metric.)

For example, Bikepump and I were talking about trailers becoming detached from the tow vehicle the other day.

One can do historical analysis and identify the *severity* and historical *likelihood* of this kind of accident (i.e., a trailer detachment occurs every X road miles driven; a trailer detachment results in a fatal accident Y% of the time, etc.), then investigate failure modes (i.e. what are the more likely and less likely ways that a trailer will become detached?). If there is an unacceptable level of risk (which is a combination of severity and likelihood - look up "risk matrix"), then mitigations can be developed and their effectiveness can be prescribed.

In the case of trailers, these include both safety chains and breakaway switches (at least for electric or pneumatic trailer brakes). An analysis can be performed about how often the primary trailer coupler fails (including human error in attachment). The safety chains and breakaway switch can therefore then be specified to need to work Z% of the time in case of a trailer coupler failure in order to reduce the risk, and meet the target level of safety.

A similar method can be applied to different parts autonomous vehicle systems: how often does an unanticipated object appear in front of the car? What is the severity of hitting that object? Why (in detail) did the collision occur, and what can be done to mitigate the future likelihood? Are the software and sensors as a whole reliable enough and high enough performing to meet the target level of safety? Are new sensors or methods needed to improve the performance?

What is unsettling and perhaps negligent in this case is that this analysis is being done in the real world, with fatal consequences for the pedestrian.

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Last edited by Dandelion; 03-29-2018 at 09:29 AM.
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  #30  
Old 03-29-2018, 09:34 AM
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Lot of assumptions at the end. What analysts and testing was done prior to use on public roads. What are the present accident to mile ratios for the system in question? Was the phone occupied human tasked with maintaining backup to the system under test just as is done in aviation based testing?
In that case the human failed.

Did they test the aviation systems in public airspace?
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